Sunday, April 19, 2009

Good point - health insurance is different

Great analysis of the fundamental problem with our current health insurance system:
Insurance only works at all because of pooled risk - you pay into a general pool and insurance companies are able to calculate the statistical likelihood that they'll have to pay out in case of accident. "Accident" is the key word - it's an event that has some probability of occurring given someone's history and lifestyle. But it's a finite, time-limited occurrence that incurs a certain amount of cost. Car insurance, therefore, works. Yes, you pay more if you're a poor driver or a 16 year-old, but there's still some statistical probability that these people won't get into accidents. Health care isn't like that. If health care insurance companies were only hedging against the likelihood that someone will slip and fall and break an arm, or fall off the ski lift, then the private solution would work fine. Now imagine the following case. To continue with the car insurance analogy, pretend that everyone has one car that cannot be sold. Some people have lemon cars whose brakes fail every week, or have continuous oil leaks, etc. In other words, the insurance company knows that it will have to pay out on the people with lemon cars, not just occasionally, but continuously. There's absolutely no incentive to insure these people at all. We could, as a society, say well, that's tough. Only, eventually, we all end up with lemon cars - we're all going to die one day, and the large majority of us will be sick for some time before that. The only way to insure people with lemon cars is stick them in a large group of average people and calculate the risk for that pool as a whole.